How it works

Read the claim

Each market has fixed wording and a resolution rule. Read both before buying. A market has no scheduled expiry; your money can stay committed for a long time. You may be able to sell into an available pool, but an exit is not guaranteed. What you receive depends on liquidity, fees and the price at the moment you sell.

The weekly AI estimate is a reading of the evidence. Three models assess it and publish their reasoning. The estimate does not set the market price or pay tokens. A weekly estimate is not a settlement instruction. Terminal settlement needs separate explicit criterion reports from authorized adapters and a finalized on-chain transaction.

Buy YES or NO

YES and NO trade in separate Raydium dollar pools. The market sets both prices: buying pressure moves a pool's price, and the chart records where it settles. A YES price of 40¢ means $0.40 per YES token before swap fees and price impact. Prices express market-implied probabilities, not calibrated scientific certainty.

Minting a YES + NO pair costs 1 USDC plus mint fees; merging a pair returns 1 USDC less fees. Traders can mint and sell an expensive pair, or buy and merge a cheap one. This arbitrage pushes executable YES + NO prices toward $1, subject to fees, liquidity and trading costs.

Charts record each pool’s observed spot price separately. A spot price is not a quote for your swap.

This site does not execute swaps or hold your keys. The wallet and Raydium guide explains the steps. Legal access restrictions apply.

Understand the collateral

Minting a complete YES + NO pair locks 1 USDC in collateral. That backs the pair's final gross payout; mint fees are disclosed separately.

After final resolution, the winning token redeems for 1 USDC gross, less the disclosed redemption fee. The losing token pays zero. For example, a 2% redemption fee would leave 0.98 USDC per winning token; that is an illustration, not a quoted fee for any market.

There is no borrowing, leverage, funding payment or liquidation. You can lose the full amount you spend. Collateral does not remove USDC depeg, program, oracle, liquidity or legal risk.

Sell, or wait for final resolution

You can try to sell in a Raydium pool while trading is available. Liquidity, fees and price impact affect what you receive; a buyer at your preferred price is not guaranteed.

A weekly estimate is not a cash-out price. Settlement follows the market’s frozen policy. Markets without a terminal binding retain their original proposal, challenge and finalization process; historical contracts are not silently converted. Terminal-mode markets settle only after matching explicit YES/NO criterion reports from three frozen trusted adapters are verified as finalized on-chain. Terminal outcomes have no appeal or reopening. Activation is checked market by market; missing or invalid reports, disagreement and UNDECIDED leave a terminal market unresolved.

Getting paid: settlement does not send money to anyone. When a market settles, open its page and redeem the winning token from your own wallet; it pays 1 USDC less the market's disclosed redemption fee.

Read the market's resolution status and frozen criteria. Model agreement does not prove scientific truth: you can be right about the science and still lose money.

Check the contract, not a promise

The source describes collateral and payout checks. Scientific evidence still depends on trusted adapters; production deployment, upgrade authority and build verification are not established by a source page. Read the contract rules, current source and trust limits.