Supercooled water has a liquid–liquid critical point.
Can very cold liquid water separate into two liquid forms, with their boundary ending at a critical point? The test fixes a temperature and pressure range and excludes ice.
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Final resolution records a contractual outcome, not proof of scientific truth. A weekly estimate or model agreement is not finalization.
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The average of three AI assessments of the published evidence. It is a current estimate of that evidence, not proven scientific truth, not a calibrated probability, and not a settlement or payout.
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Market definition · YES, NO and evidence rules
This is the frozen contract wording. Read the YES and NO tests, evidence requirements and unresolved cases before taking a position.
Canonical title
Pure water has a metastable liquid–liquid critical point between 150 and 250 K.
Exact claim · technical wording
Bulk pure H2O has a metastable first-order coexistence line between two ergodic liquid phases, ending at a critical point with 150 <= T <= 250 kelvin and 0 < P <= 500 megapascals. Metastability is relative to crystalline ice; transient amorphous solids and nanoconfinement transitions do not count as bulk liquid phases. The search domain is a contract convention.
For new terminal v2 launches, the science and evidence-cutoff schedule must be frozen and verified before tokens are issued. Each signed round uses the final corrected source version public by its UTC cutoff. Later evidence belongs in a later eligible round; the market has no calendar expiry. Historical contracts keep their original frozen terms.
How terminal v2 round IDs fix the cutoff
The immutable policy sets cutoff = initial_cutoff + (round_id − first_round_id), in UTC seconds. Round IDs may skip; they are cutoff-second identifiers, not consecutive weekly run numbers. The cutoff cannot regress and must be no later than the observation time, which must be no later than chain time. Three authorized signatures bind the round, cutoff, evidence commitment, market and frozen configuration. Legacy fixed-cutoff bindings remain unchanged; new launches require a verified v2 binding.
Resolution criteria
YES: Independent experiments establish two equilibrated liquid phases before crystallization, a terminating coexistence line and critical scaling within the stated domain, with structure/dynamics excluding ice and amorphous-solid conversion. A force-field simulation alone is insufficient. NO: An independently validated thermodynamic reconstruction excludes any such coexistence line and critical endpoint throughout the complete stated domain, including uncertainty and metastable sampling. Failure to reach the domain or crystallization before equilibration is UNDECIDED, not NO. Reference sources: You et al.: experimental evidence of a liquid-liquid critical point (https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aec0018); Constraints on water's liquid–liquid critical point (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-024-02761-0); Second critical point in two water models (https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abb9796). Evidence policy: use public primary research with methods and uncertainty, plus the named reference sources below. A preprint can inform the estimate but cannot alone meet a terminal criterion; require a peer-reviewed primary result and an independent reproduction using non-overlapping observations or independently prepared samples, unless this is a mathematical proof or the specific criterion instead requires independently implemented calculations. Report data provenance, exclusions, calibration, statistical model and systematic uncertainty. Independence means different data acquisition, not two papers reanalysing the same sample. For a quantitative terminal test, both independent results must meet the stated threshold; disagreement or an interval crossing the boundary means UNDECIDED. Use the final corrected version public at the signed round's evidence cutoff (UTC); exclude later evidence until a later eligible round. Every report in a terminal round must use the same cutoff, covered by the verified signed context and enforced by the configured terminal protocol; a different cutoff requires a new eligible round, never reinterpretation of a signed report or mutation of an immutable binding. This market has no calendar expiry. Retracted findings cannot supply a terminal result. If a named source disappears, use its DOI/publisher or an archived identical version, then an equivalent primary publication applying these unchanged definitions; if none is accessible, remain UNDECIDED, never substitute a different test. Missing data, failed replication, a null search outside the specified domain, or an untested alternative is not automatically NO. These are instructions for evidence assessment, not an automatic truth oracle: scientific interpretation and systematic-error judgment remain. Settlement follows the configured platform mode: terminal mode requires one valid round with all three frozen models returning the same explicit YES or NO and criterion_met=true; any UNDECIDED, failure or disagreement leaves it unresolved. Legacy proposal/challenge mode requires its recorded review process. Model agreement does not prove scientific truth. Invalidity is not NO and this text does not authorize a refund or cancellation: only a cancellation rule disclosed before exposure, if the configured contract supports it, can apply. Otherwise pause new entries and preserve holders' existing rights. Never reinterpret terms after listing.
The definition does not change when an AI estimate changes. Read the listing policy and this market's settlement status.
This round's inputs
How these are madeNo model provider was called for this round. This number is a labelled placeholder, not an assessment.
What each model said, and what would change its mind
What moved the number
This is a new contract, not a migrated position or a continuation of old forecast history. The initial 0.50 is an initialization convention, not an AI forecast or an assessed scientific probability. Reference links are background sources,…
Read full round note
This is a new contract, not a migrated position or a continuation of old forecast history. The initial 0.50 is an initialization convention, not an AI forecast or an assessed scientific probability. Reference links are background sources, not a claim that the YES/NO criterion has been met. No real round or liquidity was created by catalog synchronization.
The evidence packet
6 packet entries
These are stored packet descriptions. Entries without a source link may describe hypothetical findings or evidence requirements, not identifiable papers. This list is not an exact historical request record.
You et al.: experimental evidence of a liquid-liquid critical point
ContextPublished 26 March 2026: ultrafast heating and x-ray scattering report critical-region signatures and a heat-capacity increase at 210 +/- 8 K. This is direct experimental evidence to assess, not automatic satisfaction of the independent-replication, pressure-domain and liquid-equilibration criteria.
Source linkConstraints on water's liquid–liquid critical point
ContextComputational constraints predate the 2026 experiment; distinguish model predictions from experimental measurements.
Source linkSecond critical point in two water models
ContextPrimary computational evidence, explicitly for molecular models.
Source linkRequired positive observation
SupportingIndependent experiments establish two equilibrated liquid phases before crystallization, a terminating coexistence line and critical scaling within the stated domain, with structure/dynamics excluding ice and amorphous-solid conversion. A force-field simulation alone is insufficient.
Description only · no source link recordedRequired contrary observation
ContraryAn independently validated thermodynamic reconstruction excludes any such coexistence line and critical endpoint throughout the complete stated domain, including uncertainty and metastable sampling. Failure to reach the domain or crystallization before equilibration is UNDECIDED, not NO.
Description only · no source link recordedEligibility and unresolved outcomes
MethodEvidence policy: use public primary research with methods and uncertainty, plus the named reference sources below. A preprint can inform the estimate but cannot alone meet a terminal criterion; require a peer-reviewed primary result and an independent reproduction using non-overlapping observations or independently prepared samples, unless this is a mathematical proof or the specific criterion instead requires independently implemented calculations. Report data provenance, exclusions, calibration, statistical model and systematic uncertainty. Independence means different data acquisition, not two papers reanalysing the same sample. For a quantitative terminal test, both independent results must meet the stated threshold; disagreement or an interval crossing the boundary means UNDECIDED. Use the final corrected version public at the signed round's evidence cutoff (UTC); exclude later evidence until a later eligible round. Every report in a terminal round must use the same cutoff, covered by the verified signed context and enforced by the configured terminal protocol; a different cutoff requires a new eligible round, never reinterpretation of a signed report or mutation of an immutable binding. This market has no calendar expiry. Retracted findings cannot supply a terminal result. If a named source disappears, use its DOI/publisher or an archived identical version, then an equivalent primary publication applying these unchanged definitions; if none is accessible, remain UNDECIDED, never substitute a different test. Missing data, failed replication, a null search outside the specified domain, or an untested alternative is not automatically NO. These are instructions for evidence assessment, not an automatic truth oracle: scientific interpretation and systematic-error judgment remain. Settlement follows the configured platform mode: terminal mode requires one valid round with all three frozen models returning the same explicit YES or NO and criterion_met=true; any UNDECIDED, failure or disagreement leaves it unresolved. Legacy proposal/challenge mode requires its recorded review process. Model agreement does not prove scientific truth. Invalidity is not NO and this text does not authorize a refund or cancellation: only a cancellation rule disclosed before exposure, if the configured contract supports it, can apply. Otherwise pause new entries and preserve holders' existing rights. Never reinterpret terms after listing.
Description only · no source link recordedEvery round on the record
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Discussion
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Wallet and Raydium guideThe estimate, the price, and what settles
The short version, before you trade
- The estimate. Three AI models each read the evidence and return a score; the published number is their average, and it updates weekly.
- What settles this market. Settlement is not yet configured for this market; the proposal and challenge process still applies.
- What you trade. YES and NO are priced in dollars, set by traders in two pools.
- Who you trade with. The pool itself, through your own wallet. This site supplies information and pool links.
- What it is not. A guarantee that the hypothesis is true or false.
- Being right about the science can still lose money.
Full risk detail (program, oracle, custody, legal and network risk) is in the terms and disclosures and the risk disclosure.